General’s

America is Braced for the General’s Verdict

Two decades ago, General David Petraeus, the man charged with winning America’s second war in Iraq, wrote a thesis for his PhD in international relations at Princeton.

Its 328 pages were an intense study of the legacies of a war that had stretched the US military, riven world opinion and deeply divided American political life. It was entitled The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam. In one passage, the young officer took on the idea that public opinion in the US could not abide a military quagmire. ‘Vietnam was an extremely painful reminder that, when it comes to intervention, time and patience are not American virtues in abundant supply,’ Petraeus wrote in 1987. Now Petraeus is delivering another survey of an unpopular, divisive war. Only this time his audience is not a college tutor: it is the whole world.

In less than two weeks, Petraeus will appear before the US Congress and deliver a report into the progress of the ‘surge’, the military strategy launched by President George W Bush that was designed to win the Iraq war. It has been billed as a ‘make or break’ moment that could either trigger the beginnings of an American withdrawal or build on the first signs of real military success. And it will be scoured anxiously in London, where the political debate about the timing of a withdrawal of the remaining British forces is gathering pace.

In America, both sides of the political divide are breathless in anticipation. The Democrats await any hint of criticism. The Republicans have prepared a PR barrage of ‘good news’ to try to turn public opinion back behind the war effort. White House officials hail Petraeus as a ‘warrior scholar’ who finally gets what is needed to win in Iraq. They see him as a man who can save the Bush presidency.

But the reality is far more complex. The brutal truth is that the Petraeus report is unlikely to change a thing when it comes to policy on the ground: the surge and the war will go on. Its true importance lies in how it will be used politically: by the White House, by leading Democrats such as Senator Hillary Clinton, by Republican presidential hopefuls such as Rudy Giuliani.

And not least by Petraeus himself. For the highly media-savvy general has political ambitions of his own. This is his moment to shine.

A story often told about General David Howell Petraeus concerns a brush with death at Kentucky’s Fort Campbell in 1991. During a training exercise, a soldier tripped and accidentally fired his rifle. The bullet hit Petraeus in the chest. Yet he refused to leave the exercise, only relenting when a more senior general ordered him carried away on a stretcher. Even then – with the bullet missing his heart by inches – he managed to get himself discharged early from hospital after he did 50 push-ups in front of his doctor, just a few days after being shot.

The anecdote leaves little doubt that Petraeus is tough and driven. He was born in 1952 to Dutch American parents – his father, Sextus, was a seaman – and he grew up in the upstate New York town of Cornwall. It lies almost in the shadow of West Point, America’s military academy, where Petraeus duly gained admission. He excelled at high school and then graduated in the top 5 per cent of the West Point class of 1974. He also married the superintendent’s daughter. From there he carved out a successful career culminating in the rank of general.

A reputation as a ‘Washington general’ was wiped out by two tours of duty in Iraq. First he led his unit in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and then won plaudits for pacifying the northern city of Mosul in 2004. Then he took charge of the retraining and rebuilding of Iraq’s army, again winning praise for swiftly and decisively bringing on the scheme. He then co-authored the military’s new manual of counter-insurgency before, at the start of 2007, being appointed to command US forces in Iraq.

‘He’s a straight talker and he’s very highly thought of militarily,’ said Professor Donald Goldstein, a military expert at the University of Pittsburgh. Petraeus fits a lot of energy and focus into his 5ft 9in frame. He is famed for his five-mile runs, carried out even on Baghdad’s hottest days. One subordinate called him the ‘most competitive man on earth’. But his macho army bluster is also tempered by a keen intellect. His Princeton PhD is no accident. He is flexible too: he knows the war in Iraq is rarely just about bombs and bullets. In Mosul, one of his most famous catchphrases on the subject of bringing peace to the city was ‘money is ammunition’.

Yet he is not without critics. Some say he is overly fond of the media and has skilfully crafted an almost flawless public persona of the skilled tactician. Others say his focus is not just about the facts on the ground, but about his own advancement. ‘He is a sycophant incarnate. He’s a smart guy, but he’s playing politics in this,’ said Larry Johnson, a former CIA anti-terrorism official. They also point out that Petraeus’s record in Iraq can be criticized. The peace he brought to Mosul proved shortlived, and there is now a criminal investigation into missing supplies and weapons that involves officials close to Petraeus. His time in Iraq has seen the emergence of death squads and heightened sectarianism. ‘This has all happened on his watch,’ said Johnson.

But what will his report say? First, some media spin needs to be cut through. Petraeus has been used as an impressive, patriotic figure on which to hang such an important study. That suits both the White House and Petraeus himself. But his tough persona masks a more nuanced approach from the administration.

In fact, the Petraeus report will be a mix of analyzes from Petraeus and the US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker. Its exact wording will have heavy influence from White House officials. For those hoping that the report will contain a damning indictment of the war or prompt any meaningful troop reduction – or full withdrawal – there is almost certain to be deep disappointment. ‘It is frankly delusional for anyone to think it is going to change policy,’ said Charles Pena, a senior fellow at think-tank the Independent Institute. ‘They [Petraeus and Crocker] have no choice but to try to implement administration policy.’

And that policy is showing some signs of success. The military surge of troop numbers pushed by Bush has had an impact. The report will probably point to success stories in former hotbeds of Sunni insurgency such as Ramadi, Tal Afar and Mosul, where the security situation has been brought under some degree of control. In these areas, strategic alliances with Sunni tribes have seen former insurgents working with the US against Islamic jihadists. ‘There has been progress militarily. It is fair to say that,’ said Professor Rick Stoll, a defence and warfare expert at Rice University.

A taste of what Petraeus’s presentation might look like has already been given. On a recent trip by Democrat and Republican politicians to Iraq, he sat down, armed with charts and Powerpoint slides, to illustrate the advances made by the surge. An account of the meeting by Democrat Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky gives the lie to anyone expecting a military withdrawal from Iraq. She revealed to one newspaper that Petraeus told her America would be in Iraq in some way ‘for nine to 10 years’.

While the surge has changed the nature of the conflict, it has not yet brought it much closer to an end. As the brutal Sunni insurgency has tailed off, it has been replaced by Shia violence. The report is likely to note that the war has now become a fight between Shia militant groups and the US military. By last July, according to US officials, Shia fighters accounted for 73 per cent of attacks on coalition forces. That has been matched by a total failure of the Iraqi political process and a collapse of relations between the majority Shia – represented by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki – and the US. The surge’s aim was to ‘buy time’ for reconciliation between Iraq’s warring sectarian factions, but instead the feuding blocs have grown more violently apart. ‘No one wants to talk about reconciliation. No one wants to listen,’ said one official recently returned from Iraq. ‘The only reconciliation that is taking place is between the US military and some Sunni insurgents. That is not going to solve Iraq’s problems in the long run.’

So that will be the twin messages of Petraeus and Crocker. The military aspect of the surge is starting to turn the tide. But the political opportunity it was designed to create is being wasted by the Iraqis. If that sounds familiar, that is because it is the official White House stance on Iraq. ‘He is going to say that, from a military standpoint, it is going well, but, from a political standpoint, it is difficult and the Iraqis have to stand up for themselves. That is what Bush says,’ said Goldstein.

But if the contents of the report appear predictable, its impact is harder to ascertain. One thing is clear: it is unlikely to precipitate any rush significantly to withdraw US forces. It will allow the White House to claim that its strategy is working and that to halt the surge – as most Democrats wish to do – would be to snatch victory away from their troops.

Most experts believe that the White House will keep US troop levels at the current force of about 160,000 until at least April. Then to maintain the surge the army would need to extend its current rotation period from 15 months to 18 months. That is seen as too much of a burden by many military leaders.

Therefore it is widely predicted that the US presence in Iraq could be down to pre-surge levels of 130,000 troops by September next year. That could be presented as the beginning of a withdrawal, but it is hardly the sort of conflict-ending momentum that many Democrats – and much of the American public – seem to want. However, there is little political pressure on Bush to change policy in Iraq. He does not face re-election and the Democrats have shown that they are unwilling to do the one thing that could end the war: cut off funding. Again, the Petraeus report will not provide them with motivation to harden their stance. ‘The President has called the Democrats’ bluff. They don’t have the stomach for defunding, so there is no political pressure on the White House,’ said Pena.

But that is not true for any of the presidential candidates. They are all feeling the heat. For the Democrats, the Petraeus report is likely to contain enough bad news for them to continue their largely symbolic push for a troop withdrawal, but it will also have the risk that they will look as if they are undermining the first signs of success on the ground. For Republicans, it poses the opposite problem. The top-tier candidates, such as Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, have seen what happened to the campaign of John McCain, the most vocal supporter of Bush’s surge policy: his support has almost collapsed. Yet the Petraeus report is likely to force them to toe the White House line more tightly and in the face of much public hostility. Or it could cause them to go against the White House, following a pro-withdrawal line and opening up huge splits in the party itself. Those chasms are already becoming evident, with some top Republican figures, such as Senator John Warner, already calling for troop withdrawals to begin this year.

But above all the political squabbling will be Bush. No matter what happens, he will be President for all of 2008. And he shows no sign of any significant change of tack. Despite being billed as a watershed moment, the only real prospect of a reversal of Iraq policy will come in January 2009, when a new President walks into the Oval Office. The brutal fact is that there remains no meaningful end in sight for the US involvement in Iraq. Vietnam proved that the difference between when a war becomes unpopular and when it ends can be many years. In July 1967, the public approval rating of the Vietnam war dropped forever below 50 per cent, yet America did not leave Vietnam totally until 1975.

A similar process could be repeating itself in Iraq. Petraeus – as a keen student of history – would probably privately think that a tragedy. In his PhD thesis 20 years ago, he wrote: ‘Vietnam was a painful reminder for the military that they, not the transient occupants of high office, generally bear the heaviest burden during armed conflict.’

That is a trenchant analysis. But it was written by the Petraeus of Princeton. The Petraeus of next month is a general playing the highest political stakes of his career in front of the eyes of the world. He is unlikely to be so candid again.

Iraq benchmarks

Iraq has failed to meet all but three of 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks for political and military progress, according to a draft of a Government Accountability Office report to be presented to Congress on Tuesday.

Achieved: The protection of the rights of minority political parties in the Iraqi legislature. It is the only one of eight political benchmarks to have been met, the report says. However, the report does not concern itself with attacks on these parties outside of the legislature.

Failed: In other areas, the political process is judged to have been a failure, including the continued non-passage of legislation on constitutional reform, new oil laws and de-Baathification. Observers say the parliament rarely has sufficient members in attendance to have a quorum to consider legislation.

Mixed progress: On the security front, Iraq has met on two benchmarks. Despite the surge, violence remains roughly at the same levels. However, the number of Iraqi army units capable of operating independently has dropped from 10 in March to six last month.

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Saturday, January 22nd, 2011 Grants No Comments

Two Generals, Two Children – and Two Views of Chile’s Coup

Marco Antonio Pinochet was a 16-year-old on a skiing holiday in the Andes, 100 miles from Santiago, when the 1973 Chilean coup led by his father, General Augusto Pinochet, took place.

“I remember that day”, he said, sitting in a restaurant in the Providencia district of the capital. “We were meant to go skiing, but when we woke up, we found on the radio that it was a different day.”

Marco Antonio is now a tanned, smartly dressed real estate businessman, a trained pilot, and – as the eve of the 30th anniversary of the coup nears – increasingly the family spokesman.

“I think this is a good time for the reunion of the country,” he said of the anniversary on September 11. “What I want is for the country to forgive, but not forget.”

There have been many television programmes and newspaper articles about the anniversary. Most of them had concentrated too much on human rights issues, he said. “You have to think that in 17 years a government has bad things, like the human rights violations, but you have many other good things,” he said, speaking in the English he learned while a student and in business in the US.

“The achievements were the economy and leaving the country with a democratic system, the peaceful transfer from the authoritarian system to democracy.”

What did he think would have happened if the democratically elected president, Salvador Allende, had been allowed to serve out his term? “It would be like Cuba, with a different Fidel,” he replied. “It is difficult to know if Allende would [still be in power] or another more authoritarian person from the left.”

What about the disappearances and torture after the coup? “I think there were excesses … The security forces had too much independence, so when they had to react against the terrorists, they had to react with excess.”

His father was commander in chief throughout this period, so was the general not aware of what was being done?

“I think he knew – that doesn’t mean he ordered,” he said. “I don’t support any excess, I don’t agree with that, but I try to understand.”

What had he thought about his father’s detention in the UK from 1998 to 1999, at the request of the Spanish government?

“The [British] government was a Labour government, with many people in it against my father, so I suppose they reacted as they reacted. It doesn’t mean that the British people were the same.”

On this September 11, he said, “we will have a mass in church with a group of friends. It will be a time of commemoration, but not celebration.”

Where did his own political sympathies lie? “I am centre-right – my brain is in the right and my heart on the left side.”

His father has been allowed to avoid trial because of his mental state, so what is the former dictator’s health like now? “He has not lost his reason. He has problems with his memory. He can remember things that happened 50 years ago, but not what happened two years ago. It is like a jigsaw puzzle.” Gen Pinochet was still in touch with Baroness Thatcher, he said.

Does Gen Pinochet have regrets?

“Everyone has regrets for what he did in his life, so why should he be different?”

Assassination

General Carlos Prats was the Chilean commander in chief who refused to join Gen Pinochet and his plotters and later paid with his life for his loyalty to Allende.

There is a silver cigar box on the table of his daughter’s house in the Las Condes district of Santiago. It is inscribed to Sofia Prats’s father from President Allende.

At the time the present was given, they were the two most powerful men in Chile. Within three years they were both dead, Allende apparently by his own hand and Prats through a bomb planted by his former military colleagues – an assassination, many believe, authorised by Gen Pinochet.

Sofia Prats remained in Chile after the coup and was for 10 years the mayor of Huechuraba, an outlying district of the capital, where she is still a councillor. She is currently studying law. She remembered the day of the coup clearly, because she was heavily pregnant with her fourth child: “What bothered me most was not to have the baby on that day, and in fact I had it on the 29th.”

Her father’s opposition to the coup, which had been planned for months, had led to a group of senior army wives descending on the Prats house to try to persuade his wife to influence him.

“It was very hard for my mother, because some of the women who came had been friends of hers since she was at school,” she said.

After the coup, Gen and Mrs Prats left the country. They went to Buenos Aires, where he started writing his memoirs, which contained damaging material about Gen Pinochet.

A year later, a car bomb in Buenos Aires killed Sofia’s parents.

Argentina has sought the extradition of eight people believed to be responsible for the bombing, including Gen Pinochet. Five of them – four from the military – have finally been detained in Chile and face trial there. Two others are in the process of being extradited for trial in Argentina. Gen Pinochet has been excused trial because of his mental state.

Of the Chilean government’s current plans to put senior officers on trial, but grant immunity to others who give information, Sofia said: “The most we want is that people know who were the criminals, and know the truth.”

Her father left a letter for Gen Pinochet saying: “The future will tell who was wrong”. What would she say now about the judgment of history?

“My father visualised the horrors we were going to live through, and how our society would be marked by this coup profoundly. He said it would take many, many years until we could recover. He studied a lot of history, so he remembered what happened in 1891 – there was civil war at that time and he [thought] the same pattern would be repeated if we had a coup. He tried to make people understand that they had to try and find a political way to solve the problems Chile had at that time … Maybe others did not read so much history.”

His memoirs, she said, explained how the military would be abandoned by the same people who had benefited from the coup. “Not only the politicians, but also the economic groups, they have left the armed forces with the guilt,” she said.

Of Gen Pinochet, she added: “The more we know about how things were during the coup and after the coup, his personality is revealed as he is and was. Last night, I was listening to a TV documentary and they had recordings of Pinochet’s conversations [from that period] and how Pinochet said that they would put Allende in an aeroplane and throw him away. So you can see how his criminal mind was present at that very moment. There were no moral limits. Now that we know from the military that many people were thrown into the sea from planes, we can see from where that idea comes.

“He says ‘I knew nothing about what was happening’. That’s incredible. Of course, I hold Pinochet responsible for my parents’ deaths.”

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Saturday, January 22nd, 2011 Grants No Comments

Top Us Generals Reject War Tsar Role for Iraq and Afghanistan

Three retired generals approached by the White House about a new high-profile post overseeing the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and reporting directly to the president have rejected the proposed post, leaving the administration struggling to find anyone of stature willing to take it on.

One of the four-star generals said he declined because of the chaotic way the war was being run and because Dick Cheney, the vice-president and the leading hawk in the Bush administration, retained more influence than pragmatists looking for a way out.

The deputy White House spokeswoman, Dana Perino, confirmed yesterday that George Bush was considering restructuring the administration to create a new post, dubbed the war tsar by US media. It would involve co-ordinating the work of the defence, state and other departments at what she described as a critical stage in the wars. One of the retired generals approached, Marine General John Sheehan, told the Washington Post: “The very fundamental issue is they don’t know where the hell they’re going.”

The unwillingness of the generals to take the job undermines recent attempts by the Bush administration to put a positive spin on the Iraq war. Mr Bush has claimed repeatedly over the past few weeks that there are signs his strategy of pouring extra US troops into Baghdad and neighbouring Anbar province is working.

The proposal to create the job comes after the departure of Meghan O’Sullivan, the 37-year-old who had the top national security council job on Iraq and Afghanistan. She was responsible for policy but had no power to implement it. The proposed war tsar would have the power to issue orders, and would be answerable directly to the president and his national security adviser, Stephen Hadley.

Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the national security council, said the White House had sought advice from a number of people about the job but insisted it had not been offered to anyone. “The White House is looking into creating a higher profile position that would have the single, full-time focus on implementing and executing the recently completed strategic reviews for both Iraq and Afghanistan.”

Gen Sheehan said Mr Cheney and his allies “are still in the positions of most influence” in spite of two leading pragmatists, the defence secretary, Robert Gates, and the secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, winning support in the past four months for a diplomatic approach. After two weeks of discussing the job with Mr Hadley, Gen Sheehan rejected it: “So rather than go over there, develop an ulcer and eventually leave, I said, ‘No, thanks.’”

Mr Cheney last week reiterated claims of links between al-Qaida and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in spite of newly released US intelligence assessments saying there had been no evidence. Mr Cheney, unlike Mr Gates and Ms Rice, also favours air strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites.

The US continued to put pressure on Iran yesterday. Major-General William Caldwell, a US military spokesman, in Baghdad yesterday repeated claims that Tehran was supplying Iraqi insurgents with explosive devices used in ambushes on US and British troops but also claimed Iran was training insurgents to use the explosives. He said the information had been gleaned from interrogation of detainees as recently as this month, some of whom said they had been in Iranian training camps. “We know that they [the explosive devices] are being in fact manufactured and smuggled into this country, and we know that training does go on in Iran for people to learn how to assemble them and how to employ them,” he said.

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Monday, January 3rd, 2011 Grants No Comments

America is Braced for the General’s Verdict

Two decades ago, General David Petraeus, the man charged with winning America’s second war in Iraq, wrote a thesis for his PhD in international relations at Princeton.

Its 328 pages were an intense study of the legacies of a war that had stretched the US military, riven world opinion and deeply divided American political life. It was entitled The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam. In one passage, the young officer took on the idea that public opinion in the US could not abide a military quagmire. ‘Vietnam was an extremely painful reminder that, when it comes to intervention, time and patience are not American virtues in abundant supply,’ Petraeus wrote in 1987. Now Petraeus is delivering another survey of an unpopular, divisive war. Only this time his audience is not a college tutor: it is the whole world.

In less than two weeks, Petraeus will appear before the US Congress and deliver a report into the progress of the ‘surge’, the military strategy launched by President George W Bush that was designed to win the Iraq war. It has been billed as a ‘make or break’ moment that could either trigger the beginnings of an American withdrawal or build on the first signs of real military success. And it will be scoured anxiously in London, where the political debate about the timing of a withdrawal of the remaining British forces is gathering pace.

In America, both sides of the political divide are breathless in anticipation. The Democrats await any hint of criticism. The Republicans have prepared a PR barrage of ‘good news’ to try to turn public opinion back behind the war effort. White House officials hail Petraeus as a ‘warrior scholar’ who finally gets what is needed to win in Iraq. They see him as a man who can save the Bush presidency.

But the reality is far more complex. The brutal truth is that the Petraeus report is unlikely to change a thing when it comes to policy on the ground: the surge and the war will go on. Its true importance lies in how it will be used politically: by the White House, by leading Democrats such as Senator Hillary Clinton, by Republican presidential hopefuls such as Rudy Giuliani.

And not least by Petraeus himself. For the highly media-savvy general has political ambitions of his own. This is his moment to shine.

A story often told about General David Howell Petraeus concerns a brush with death at Kentucky’s Fort Campbell in 1991. During a training exercise, a soldier tripped and accidentally fired his rifle. The bullet hit Petraeus in the chest. Yet he refused to leave the exercise, only relenting when a more senior general ordered him carried away on a stretcher. Even then – with the bullet missing his heart by inches – he managed to get himself discharged early from hospital after he did 50 push-ups in front of his doctor, just a few days after being shot.

The anecdote leaves little doubt that Petraeus is tough and driven. He was born in 1952 to Dutch American parents – his father, Sextus, was a seaman – and he grew up in the upstate New York town of Cornwall. It lies almost in the shadow of West Point, America’s military academy, where Petraeus duly gained admission. He excelled at high school and then graduated in the top 5 per cent of the West Point class of 1974. He also married the superintendent’s daughter. From there he carved out a successful career culminating in the rank of general.

A reputation as a ‘Washington general’ was wiped out by two tours of duty in Iraq. First he led his unit in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and then won plaudits for pacifying the northern city of Mosul in 2004. Then he took charge of the retraining and rebuilding of Iraq’s army, again winning praise for swiftly and decisively bringing on the scheme. He then co-authored the military’s new manual of counter-insurgency before, at the start of 2007, being appointed to command US forces in Iraq.

‘He’s a straight talker and he’s very highly thought of militarily,’ said Professor Donald Goldstein, a military expert at the University of Pittsburgh. Petraeus fits a lot of energy and focus into his 5ft 9in frame. He is famed for his five-mile runs, carried out even on Baghdad’s hottest days. One subordinate called him the ‘most competitive man on earth’. But his macho army bluster is also tempered by a keen intellect. His Princeton PhD is no accident. He is flexible too: he knows the war in Iraq is rarely just about bombs and bullets. In Mosul, one of his most famous catchphrases on the subject of bringing peace to the city was ‘money is ammunition’.

Yet he is not without critics. Some say he is overly fond of the media and has skilfully crafted an almost flawless public persona of the skilled tactician. Others say his focus is not just about the facts on the ground, but about his own advancement. ‘He is a sycophant incarnate. He’s a smart guy, but he’s playing politics in this,’ said Larry Johnson, a former CIA anti-terrorism official. They also point out that Petraeus’s record in Iraq can be criticized. The peace he brought to Mosul proved shortlived, and there is now a criminal investigation into missing supplies and weapons that involves officials close to Petraeus. His time in Iraq has seen the emergence of death squads and heightened sectarianism. ‘This has all happened on his watch,’ said Johnson.

But what will his report say? First, some media spin needs to be cut through. Petraeus has been used as an impressive, patriotic figure on which to hang such an important study. That suits both the White House and Petraeus himself. But his tough persona masks a more nuanced approach from the administration.

In fact, the Petraeus report will be a mix of analyzes from Petraeus and the US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker. Its exact wording will have heavy influence from White House officials. For those hoping that the report will contain a damning indictment of the war or prompt any meaningful troop reduction – or full withdrawal – there is almost certain to be deep disappointment. ‘It is frankly delusional for anyone to think it is going to change policy,’ said Charles Pena, a senior fellow at think-tank the Independent Institute. ‘They [Petraeus and Crocker] have no choice but to try to implement administration policy.’

And that policy is showing some signs of success. The military surge of troop numbers pushed by Bush has had an impact. The report will probably point to success stories in former hotbeds of Sunni insurgency such as Ramadi, Tal Afar and Mosul, where the security situation has been brought under some degree of control. In these areas, strategic alliances with Sunni tribes have seen former insurgents working with the US against Islamic jihadists. ‘There has been progress militarily. It is fair to say that,’ said Professor Rick Stoll, a defence and warfare expert at Rice University.

A taste of what Petraeus’s presentation might look like has already been given. On a recent trip by Democrat and Republican politicians to Iraq, he sat down, armed with charts and Powerpoint slides, to illustrate the advances made by the surge. An account of the meeting by Democrat Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky gives the lie to anyone expecting a military withdrawal from Iraq. She revealed to one newspaper that Petraeus told her America would be in Iraq in some way ‘for nine to 10 years’.

While the surge has changed the nature of the conflict, it has not yet brought it much closer to an end. As the brutal Sunni insurgency has tailed off, it has been replaced by Shia violence. The report is likely to note that the war has now become a fight between Shia militant groups and the US military. By last July, according to US officials, Shia fighters accounted for 73 per cent of attacks on coalition forces. That has been matched by a total failure of the Iraqi political process and a collapse of relations between the majority Shia – represented by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki – and the US. The surge’s aim was to ‘buy time’ for reconciliation between Iraq’s warring sectarian factions, but instead the feuding blocs have grown more violently apart. ‘No one wants to talk about reconciliation. No one wants to listen,’ said one official recently returned from Iraq. ‘The only reconciliation that is taking place is between the US military and some Sunni insurgents. That is not going to solve Iraq’s problems in the long run.’

So that will be the twin messages of Petraeus and Crocker. The military aspect of the surge is starting to turn the tide. But the political opportunity it was designed to create is being wasted by the Iraqis. If that sounds familiar, that is because it is the official White House stance on Iraq. ‘He is going to say that, from a military standpoint, it is going well, but, from a political standpoint, it is difficult and the Iraqis have to stand up for themselves. That is what Bush says,’ said Goldstein.

But if the contents of the report appear predictable, its impact is harder to ascertain. One thing is clear: it is unlikely to precipitate any rush significantly to withdraw US forces. It will allow the White House to claim that its strategy is working and that to halt the surge – as most Democrats wish to do – would be to snatch victory away from their troops.

Most experts believe that the White House will keep US troop levels at the current force of about 160,000 until at least April. Then to maintain the surge the army would need to extend its current rotation period from 15 months to 18 months. That is seen as too much of a burden by many military leaders.

Therefore it is widely predicted that the US presence in Iraq could be down to pre-surge levels of 130,000 troops by September next year. That could be presented as the beginning of a withdrawal, but it is hardly the sort of conflict-ending momentum that many Democrats – and much of the American public – seem to want. However, there is little political pressure on Bush to change policy in Iraq. He does not face re-election and the Democrats have shown that they are unwilling to do the one thing that could end the war: cut off funding. Again, the Petraeus report will not provide them with motivation to harden their stance. ‘The President has called the Democrats’ bluff. They don’t have the stomach for defunding, so there is no political pressure on the White House,’ said Pena.

But that is not true for any of the presidential candidates. They are all feeling the heat. For the Democrats, the Petraeus report is likely to contain enough bad news for them to continue their largely symbolic push for a troop withdrawal, but it will also have the risk that they will look as if they are undermining the first signs of success on the ground. For Republicans, it poses the opposite problem. The top-tier candidates, such as Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, have seen what happened to the campaign of John McCain, the most vocal supporter of Bush’s surge policy: his support has almost collapsed. Yet the Petraeus report is likely to force them to toe the White House line more tightly and in the face of much public hostility. Or it could cause them to go against the White House, following a pro-withdrawal line and opening up huge splits in the party itself. Those chasms are already becoming evident, with some top Republican figures, such as Senator John Warner, already calling for troop withdrawals to begin this year.

But above all the political squabbling will be Bush. No matter what happens, he will be President for all of 2008. And he shows no sign of any significant change of tack. Despite being billed as a watershed moment, the only real prospect of a reversal of Iraq policy will come in January 2009, when a new President walks into the Oval Office. The brutal fact is that there remains no meaningful end in sight for the US involvement in Iraq. Vietnam proved that the difference between when a war becomes unpopular and when it ends can be many years. In July 1967, the public approval rating of the Vietnam war dropped forever below 50 per cent, yet America did not leave Vietnam totally until 1975.

A similar process could be repeating itself in Iraq. Petraeus – as a keen student of history – would probably privately think that a tragedy. In his PhD thesis 20 years ago, he wrote: ‘Vietnam was a painful reminder for the military that they, not the transient occupants of high office, generally bear the heaviest burden during armed conflict.’

That is a trenchant analysis. But it was written by the Petraeus of Princeton. The Petraeus of next month is a general playing the highest political stakes of his career in front of the eyes of the world. He is unlikely to be so candid again.

Iraq benchmarks

Iraq has failed to meet all but three of 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks for political and military progress, according to a draft of a Government Accountability Office report to be presented to Congress on Tuesday.

Achieved: The protection of the rights of minority political parties in the Iraqi legislature. It is the only one of eight political benchmarks to have been met, the report says. However, the report does not concern itself with attacks on these parties outside of the legislature.

Failed: In other areas, the political process is judged to have been a failure, including the continued non-passage of legislation on constitutional reform, new oil laws and de-Baathification. Observers say the parliament rarely has sufficient members in attendance to have a quorum to consider legislation.

Mixed progress: On the security front, Iraq has met on two benchmarks. Despite the surge, violence remains roughly at the same levels. However, the number of Iraqi army units capable of operating independently has dropped from 10 in March to six last month.

Tags: , , ,

Tuesday, December 7th, 2010 Grants No Comments

America is Braced for the General’s Verdict

Two decades ago, General David Petraeus, the man charged with winning America’s second war in Iraq, wrote a thesis for his PhD in international relations at Princeton.

Its 328 pages were an intense study of the legacies of a war that had stretched the US military, riven world opinion and deeply divided American political life. It was entitled The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam. In one passage, the young officer took on the idea that public opinion in the US could not abide a military quagmire. ‘Vietnam was an extremely painful reminder that, when it comes to intervention, time and patience are not American virtues in abundant supply,’ Petraeus wrote in 1987. Now Petraeus is delivering another survey of an unpopular, divisive war. Only this time his audience is not a college tutor: it is the whole world.

In less than two weeks, Petraeus will appear before the US Congress and deliver a report into the progress of the ‘surge’, the military strategy launched by President George W Bush that was designed to win the Iraq war. It has been billed as a ‘make or break’ moment that could either trigger the beginnings of an American withdrawal or build on the first signs of real military success. And it will be scoured anxiously in London, where the political debate about the timing of a withdrawal of the remaining British forces is gathering pace.

In America, both sides of the political divide are breathless in anticipation. The Democrats await any hint of criticism. The Republicans have prepared a PR barrage of ‘good news’ to try to turn public opinion back behind the war effort. White House officials hail Petraeus as a ‘warrior scholar’ who finally gets what is needed to win in Iraq. They see him as a man who can save the Bush presidency.

But the reality is far more complex. The brutal truth is that the Petraeus report is unlikely to change a thing when it comes to policy on the ground: the surge and the war will go on. Its true importance lies in how it will be used politically: by the White House, by leading Democrats such as Senator Hillary Clinton, by Republican presidential hopefuls such as Rudy Giuliani.

And not least by Petraeus himself. For the highly media-savvy general has political ambitions of his own. This is his moment to shine.

A story often told about General David Howell Petraeus concerns a brush with death at Kentucky’s Fort Campbell in 1991. During a training exercise, a soldier tripped and accidentally fired his rifle. The bullet hit Petraeus in the chest. Yet he refused to leave the exercise, only relenting when a more senior general ordered him carried away on a stretcher. Even then – with the bullet missing his heart by inches – he managed to get himself discharged early from hospital after he did 50 push-ups in front of his doctor, just a few days after being shot.

The anecdote leaves little doubt that Petraeus is tough and driven. He was born in 1952 to Dutch American parents – his father, Sextus, was a seaman – and he grew up in the upstate New York town of Cornwall. It lies almost in the shadow of West Point, America’s military academy, where Petraeus duly gained admission. He excelled at high school and then graduated in the top 5 per cent of the West Point class of 1974. He also married the superintendent’s daughter. From there he carved out a successful career culminating in the rank of general.

A reputation as a ‘Washington general’ was wiped out by two tours of duty in Iraq. First he led his unit in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and then won plaudits for pacifying the northern city of Mosul in 2004. Then he took charge of the retraining and rebuilding of Iraq’s army, again winning praise for swiftly and decisively bringing on the scheme. He then co-authored the military’s new manual of counter-insurgency before, at the start of 2007, being appointed to command US forces in Iraq.

‘He’s a straight talker and he’s very highly thought of militarily,’ said Professor Donald Goldstein, a military expert at the University of Pittsburgh. Petraeus fits a lot of energy and focus into his 5ft 9in frame. He is famed for his five-mile runs, carried out even on Baghdad’s hottest days. One subordinate called him the ‘most competitive man on earth’. But his macho army bluster is also tempered by a keen intellect. His Princeton PhD is no accident. He is flexible too: he knows the war in Iraq is rarely just about bombs and bullets. In Mosul, one of his most famous catchphrases on the subject of bringing peace to the city was ‘money is ammunition’.

Yet he is not without critics. Some say he is overly fond of the media and has skilfully crafted an almost flawless public persona of the skilled tactician. Others say his focus is not just about the facts on the ground, but about his own advancement. ‘He is a sycophant incarnate. He’s a smart guy, but he’s playing politics in this,’ said Larry Johnson, a former CIA anti-terrorism official. They also point out that Petraeus’s record in Iraq can be criticized. The peace he brought to Mosul proved shortlived, and there is now a criminal investigation into missing supplies and weapons that involves officials close to Petraeus. His time in Iraq has seen the emergence of death squads and heightened sectarianism. ‘This has all happened on his watch,’ said Johnson.

But what will his report say? First, some media spin needs to be cut through. Petraeus has been used as an impressive, patriotic figure on which to hang such an important study. That suits both the White House and Petraeus himself. But his tough persona masks a more nuanced approach from the administration.

In fact, the Petraeus report will be a mix of analyzes from Petraeus and the US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker. Its exact wording will have heavy influence from White House officials. For those hoping that the report will contain a damning indictment of the war or prompt any meaningful troop reduction – or full withdrawal – there is almost certain to be deep disappointment. ‘It is frankly delusional for anyone to think it is going to change policy,’ said Charles Pena, a senior fellow at think-tank the Independent Institute. ‘They [Petraeus and Crocker] have no choice but to try to implement administration policy.’

And that policy is showing some signs of success. The military surge of troop numbers pushed by Bush has had an impact. The report will probably point to success stories in former hotbeds of Sunni insurgency such as Ramadi, Tal Afar and Mosul, where the security situation has been brought under some degree of control. In these areas, strategic alliances with Sunni tribes have seen former insurgents working with the US against Islamic jihadists. ‘There has been progress militarily. It is fair to say that,’ said Professor Rick Stoll, a defence and warfare expert at Rice University.

A taste of what Petraeus’s presentation might look like has already been given. On a recent trip by Democrat and Republican politicians to Iraq, he sat down, armed with charts and Powerpoint slides, to illustrate the advances made by the surge. An account of the meeting by Democrat Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky gives the lie to anyone expecting a military withdrawal from Iraq. She revealed to one newspaper that Petraeus told her America would be in Iraq in some way ‘for nine to 10 years’.

While the surge has changed the nature of the conflict, it has not yet brought it much closer to an end. As the brutal Sunni insurgency has tailed off, it has been replaced by Shia violence. The report is likely to note that the war has now become a fight between Shia militant groups and the US military. By last July, according to US officials, Shia fighters accounted for 73 per cent of attacks on coalition forces. That has been matched by a total failure of the Iraqi political process and a collapse of relations between the majority Shia – represented by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki – and the US. The surge’s aim was to ‘buy time’ for reconciliation between Iraq’s warring sectarian factions, but instead the feuding blocs have grown more violently apart. ‘No one wants to talk about reconciliation. No one wants to listen,’ said one official recently returned from Iraq. ‘The only reconciliation that is taking place is between the US military and some Sunni insurgents. That is not going to solve Iraq’s problems in the long run.’

So that will be the twin messages of Petraeus and Crocker. The military aspect of the surge is starting to turn the tide. But the political opportunity it was designed to create is being wasted by the Iraqis. If that sounds familiar, that is because it is the official White House stance on Iraq. ‘He is going to say that, from a military standpoint, it is going well, but, from a political standpoint, it is difficult and the Iraqis have to stand up for themselves. That is what Bush says,’ said Goldstein.

But if the contents of the report appear predictable, its impact is harder to ascertain. One thing is clear: it is unlikely to precipitate any rush significantly to withdraw US forces. It will allow the White House to claim that its strategy is working and that to halt the surge – as most Democrats wish to do – would be to snatch victory away from their troops.

Most experts believe that the White House will keep US troop levels at the current force of about 160,000 until at least April. Then to maintain the surge the army would need to extend its current rotation period from 15 months to 18 months. That is seen as too much of a burden by many military leaders.

Therefore it is widely predicted that the US presence in Iraq could be down to pre-surge levels of 130,000 troops by September next year. That could be presented as the beginning of a withdrawal, but it is hardly the sort of conflict-ending momentum that many Democrats – and much of the American public – seem to want. However, there is little political pressure on Bush to change policy in Iraq. He does not face re-election and the Democrats have shown that they are unwilling to do the one thing that could end the war: cut off funding. Again, the Petraeus report will not provide them with motivation to harden their stance. ‘The President has called the Democrats’ bluff. They don’t have the stomach for defunding, so there is no political pressure on the White House,’ said Pena.

But that is not true for any of the presidential candidates. They are all feeling the heat. For the Democrats, the Petraeus report is likely to contain enough bad news for them to continue their largely symbolic push for a troop withdrawal, but it will also have the risk that they will look as if they are undermining the first signs of success on the ground. For Republicans, it poses the opposite problem. The top-tier candidates, such as Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, have seen what happened to the campaign of John McCain, the most vocal supporter of Bush’s surge policy: his support has almost collapsed. Yet the Petraeus report is likely to force them to toe the White House line more tightly and in the face of much public hostility. Or it could cause them to go against the White House, following a pro-withdrawal line and opening up huge splits in the party itself. Those chasms are already becoming evident, with some top Republican figures, such as Senator John Warner, already calling for troop withdrawals to begin this year.

But above all the political squabbling will be Bush. No matter what happens, he will be President for all of 2008. And he shows no sign of any significant change of tack. Despite being billed as a watershed moment, the only real prospect of a reversal of Iraq policy will come in January 2009, when a new President walks into the Oval Office. The brutal fact is that there remains no meaningful end in sight for the US involvement in Iraq. Vietnam proved that the difference between when a war becomes unpopular and when it ends can be many years. In July 1967, the public approval rating of the Vietnam war dropped forever below 50 per cent, yet America did not leave Vietnam totally until 1975.

A similar process could be repeating itself in Iraq. Petraeus – as a keen student of history – would probably privately think that a tragedy. In his PhD thesis 20 years ago, he wrote: ‘Vietnam was a painful reminder for the military that they, not the transient occupants of high office, generally bear the heaviest burden during armed conflict.’

That is a trenchant analysis. But it was written by the Petraeus of Princeton. The Petraeus of next month is a general playing the highest political stakes of his career in front of the eyes of the world. He is unlikely to be so candid again.

Iraq benchmarks

Iraq has failed to meet all but three of 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks for political and military progress, according to a draft of a Government Accountability Office report to be presented to Congress on Tuesday.

Achieved: The protection of the rights of minority political parties in the Iraqi legislature. It is the only one of eight political benchmarks to have been met, the report says. However, the report does not concern itself with attacks on these parties outside of the legislature.

Failed: In other areas, the political process is judged to have been a failure, including the continued non-passage of legislation on constitutional reform, new oil laws and de-Baathification. Observers say the parliament rarely has sufficient members in attendance to have a quorum to consider legislation.

Mixed progress: On the security front, Iraq has met on two benchmarks. Despite the surge, violence remains roughly at the same levels. However, the number of Iraqi army units capable of operating independently has dropped from 10 in March to six last month.

Tags: , , ,

Friday, October 29th, 2010 Grants No Comments

America is Braced for the General’s Verdict

Two decades ago, General David Petraeus, the man charged with winning America’s second war in Iraq, wrote a thesis for his PhD in international relations at Princeton.

Its 328 pages were an intense study of the legacies of a war that had stretched the US military, riven world opinion and deeply divided American political life. It was entitled The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam. In one passage, the young officer took on the idea that public opinion in the US could not abide a military quagmire. ‘Vietnam was an extremely painful reminder that, when it comes to intervention, time and patience are not American virtues in abundant supply,’ Petraeus wrote in 1987. Now Petraeus is delivering another survey of an unpopular, divisive war. Only this time his audience is not a college tutor: it is the whole world.

In less than two weeks, Petraeus will appear before the US Congress and deliver a report into the progress of the ‘surge’, the military strategy launched by President George W Bush that was designed to win the Iraq war. It has been billed as a ‘make or break’ moment that could either trigger the beginnings of an American withdrawal or build on the first signs of real military success. And it will be scoured anxiously in London, where the political debate about the timing of a withdrawal of the remaining British forces is gathering pace.

In America, both sides of the political divide are breathless in anticipation. The Democrats await any hint of criticism. The Republicans have prepared a PR barrage of ‘good news’ to try to turn public opinion back behind the war effort. White House officials hail Petraeus as a ‘warrior scholar’ who finally gets what is needed to win in Iraq. They see him as a man who can save the Bush presidency.

But the reality is far more complex. The brutal truth is that the Petraeus report is unlikely to change a thing when it comes to policy on the ground: the surge and the war will go on. Its true importance lies in how it will be used politically: by the White House, by leading Democrats such as Senator Hillary Clinton, by Republican presidential hopefuls such as Rudy Giuliani.

And not least by Petraeus himself. For the highly media-savvy general has political ambitions of his own. This is his moment to shine.

A story often told about General David Howell Petraeus concerns a brush with death at Kentucky’s Fort Campbell in 1991. During a training exercise, a soldier tripped and accidentally fired his rifle. The bullet hit Petraeus in the chest. Yet he refused to leave the exercise, only relenting when a more senior general ordered him carried away on a stretcher. Even then – with the bullet missing his heart by inches – he managed to get himself discharged early from hospital after he did 50 push-ups in front of his doctor, just a few days after being shot.

The anecdote leaves little doubt that Petraeus is tough and driven. He was born in 1952 to Dutch American parents – his father, Sextus, was a seaman – and he grew up in the upstate New York town of Cornwall. It lies almost in the shadow of West Point, America’s military academy, where Petraeus duly gained admission. He excelled at high school and then graduated in the top 5 per cent of the West Point class of 1974. He also married the superintendent’s daughter. From there he carved out a successful career culminating in the rank of general.

A reputation as a ‘Washington general’ was wiped out by two tours of duty in Iraq. First he led his unit in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and then won plaudits for pacifying the northern city of Mosul in 2004. Then he took charge of the retraining and rebuilding of Iraq’s army, again winning praise for swiftly and decisively bringing on the scheme. He then co-authored the military’s new manual of counter-insurgency before, at the start of 2007, being appointed to command US forces in Iraq.

‘He’s a straight talker and he’s very highly thought of militarily,’ said Professor Donald Goldstein, a military expert at the University of Pittsburgh. Petraeus fits a lot of energy and focus into his 5ft 9in frame. He is famed for his five-mile runs, carried out even on Baghdad’s hottest days. One subordinate called him the ‘most competitive man on earth’. But his macho army bluster is also tempered by a keen intellect. His Princeton PhD is no accident. He is flexible too: he knows the war in Iraq is rarely just about bombs and bullets. In Mosul, one of his most famous catchphrases on the subject of bringing peace to the city was ‘money is ammunition’.

Yet he is not without critics. Some say he is overly fond of the media and has skilfully crafted an almost flawless public persona of the skilled tactician. Others say his focus is not just about the facts on the ground, but about his own advancement. ‘He is a sycophant incarnate. He’s a smart guy, but he’s playing politics in this,’ said Larry Johnson, a former CIA anti-terrorism official. They also point out that Petraeus’s record in Iraq can be criticized. The peace he brought to Mosul proved shortlived, and there is now a criminal investigation into missing supplies and weapons that involves officials close to Petraeus. His time in Iraq has seen the emergence of death squads and heightened sectarianism. ‘This has all happened on his watch,’ said Johnson.

But what will his report say? First, some media spin needs to be cut through. Petraeus has been used as an impressive, patriotic figure on which to hang such an important study. That suits both the White House and Petraeus himself. But his tough persona masks a more nuanced approach from the administration.

In fact, the Petraeus report will be a mix of analyzes from Petraeus and the US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker. Its exact wording will have heavy influence from White House officials. For those hoping that the report will contain a damning indictment of the war or prompt any meaningful troop reduction – or full withdrawal – there is almost certain to be deep disappointment. ‘It is frankly delusional for anyone to think it is going to change policy,’ said Charles Pena, a senior fellow at think-tank the Independent Institute. ‘They [Petraeus and Crocker] have no choice but to try to implement administration policy.’

And that policy is showing some signs of success. The military surge of troop numbers pushed by Bush has had an impact. The report will probably point to success stories in former hotbeds of Sunni insurgency such as Ramadi, Tal Afar and Mosul, where the security situation has been brought under some degree of control. In these areas, strategic alliances with Sunni tribes have seen former insurgents working with the US against Islamic jihadists. ‘There has been progress militarily. It is fair to say that,’ said Professor Rick Stoll, a defence and warfare expert at Rice University.

A taste of what Petraeus’s presentation might look like has already been given. On a recent trip by Democrat and Republican politicians to Iraq, he sat down, armed with charts and Powerpoint slides, to illustrate the advances made by the surge. An account of the meeting by Democrat Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky gives the lie to anyone expecting a military withdrawal from Iraq. She revealed to one newspaper that Petraeus told her America would be in Iraq in some way ‘for nine to 10 years’.

While the surge has changed the nature of the conflict, it has not yet brought it much closer to an end. As the brutal Sunni insurgency has tailed off, it has been replaced by Shia violence. The report is likely to note that the war has now become a fight between Shia militant groups and the US military. By last July, according to US officials, Shia fighters accounted for 73 per cent of attacks on coalition forces. That has been matched by a total failure of the Iraqi political process and a collapse of relations between the majority Shia – represented by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki – and the US. The surge’s aim was to ‘buy time’ for reconciliation between Iraq’s warring sectarian factions, but instead the feuding blocs have grown more violently apart. ‘No one wants to talk about reconciliation. No one wants to listen,’ said one official recently returned from Iraq. ‘The only reconciliation that is taking place is between the US military and some Sunni insurgents. That is not going to solve Iraq’s problems in the long run.’

So that will be the twin messages of Petraeus and Crocker. The military aspect of the surge is starting to turn the tide. But the political opportunity it was designed to create is being wasted by the Iraqis. If that sounds familiar, that is because it is the official White House stance on Iraq. ‘He is going to say that, from a military standpoint, it is going well, but, from a political standpoint, it is difficult and the Iraqis have to stand up for themselves. That is what Bush says,’ said Goldstein.

But if the contents of the report appear predictable, its impact is harder to ascertain. One thing is clear: it is unlikely to precipitate any rush significantly to withdraw US forces. It will allow the White House to claim that its strategy is working and that to halt the surge – as most Democrats wish to do – would be to snatch victory away from their troops.

Most experts believe that the White House will keep US troop levels at the current force of about 160,000 until at least April. Then to maintain the surge the army would need to extend its current rotation period from 15 months to 18 months. That is seen as too much of a burden by many military leaders.

Therefore it is widely predicted that the US presence in Iraq could be down to pre-surge levels of 130,000 troops by September next year. That could be presented as the beginning of a withdrawal, but it is hardly the sort of conflict-ending momentum that many Democrats – and much of the American public – seem to want. However, there is little political pressure on Bush to change policy in Iraq. He does not face re-election and the Democrats have shown that they are unwilling to do the one thing that could end the war: cut off funding. Again, the Petraeus report will not provide them with motivation to harden their stance. ‘The President has called the Democrats’ bluff. They don’t have the stomach for defunding, so there is no political pressure on the White House,’ said Pena.

But that is not true for any of the presidential candidates. They are all feeling the heat. For the Democrats, the Petraeus report is likely to contain enough bad news for them to continue their largely symbolic push for a troop withdrawal, but it will also have the risk that they will look as if they are undermining the first signs of success on the ground. For Republicans, it poses the opposite problem. The top-tier candidates, such as Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, have seen what happened to the campaign of John McCain, the most vocal supporter of Bush’s surge policy: his support has almost collapsed. Yet the Petraeus report is likely to force them to toe the White House line more tightly and in the face of much public hostility. Or it could cause them to go against the White House, following a pro-withdrawal line and opening up huge splits in the party itself. Those chasms are already becoming evident, with some top Republican figures, such as Senator John Warner, already calling for troop withdrawals to begin this year.

But above all the political squabbling will be Bush. No matter what happens, he will be President for all of 2008. And he shows no sign of any significant change of tack. Despite being billed as a watershed moment, the only real prospect of a reversal of Iraq policy will come in January 2009, when a new President walks into the Oval Office. The brutal fact is that there remains no meaningful end in sight for the US involvement in Iraq. Vietnam proved that the difference between when a war becomes unpopular and when it ends can be many years. In July 1967, the public approval rating of the Vietnam war dropped forever below 50 per cent, yet America did not leave Vietnam totally until 1975.

A similar process could be repeating itself in Iraq. Petraeus – as a keen student of history – would probably privately think that a tragedy. In his PhD thesis 20 years ago, he wrote: ‘Vietnam was a painful reminder for the military that they, not the transient occupants of high office, generally bear the heaviest burden during armed conflict.’

That is a trenchant analysis. But it was written by the Petraeus of Princeton. The Petraeus of next month is a general playing the highest political stakes of his career in front of the eyes of the world. He is unlikely to be so candid again.

Iraq benchmarks

Iraq has failed to meet all but three of 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks for political and military progress, according to a draft of a Government Accountability Office report to be presented to Congress on Tuesday.

Achieved: The protection of the rights of minority political parties in the Iraqi legislature. It is the only one of eight political benchmarks to have been met, the report says. However, the report does not concern itself with attacks on these parties outside of the legislature.

Failed: In other areas, the political process is judged to have been a failure, including the continued non-passage of legislation on constitutional reform, new oil laws and de-Baathification. Observers say the parliament rarely has sufficient members in attendance to have a quorum to consider legislation.

Mixed progress: On the security front, Iraq has met on two benchmarks. Despite the surge, violence remains roughly at the same levels. However, the number of Iraqi army units capable of operating independently has dropped from 10 in March to six last month.

Tags: , , ,

Friday, October 29th, 2010 Grants No Comments

America is Braced for the General’s Verdict

Two decades ago, General David Petraeus, the man charged with winning America’s second war in Iraq, wrote a thesis for his PhD in international relations at Princeton.

Its 328 pages were an intense study of the legacies of a war that had stretched the US military, riven world opinion and deeply divided American political life. It was entitled The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam. In one passage, the young officer took on the idea that public opinion in the US could not abide a military quagmire. ‘Vietnam was an extremely painful reminder that, when it comes to intervention, time and patience are not American virtues in abundant supply,’ Petraeus wrote in 1987. Now Petraeus is delivering another survey of an unpopular, divisive war. Only this time his audience is not a college tutor: it is the whole world.

In less than two weeks, Petraeus will appear before the US Congress and deliver a report into the progress of the ‘surge’, the military strategy launched by President George W Bush that was designed to win the Iraq war. It has been billed as a ‘make or break’ moment that could either trigger the beginnings of an American withdrawal or build on the first signs of real military success. And it will be scoured anxiously in London, where the political debate about the timing of a withdrawal of the remaining British forces is gathering pace.

In America, both sides of the political divide are breathless in anticipation. The Democrats await any hint of criticism. The Republicans have prepared a PR barrage of ‘good news’ to try to turn public opinion back behind the war effort. White House officials hail Petraeus as a ‘warrior scholar’ who finally gets what is needed to win in Iraq. They see him as a man who can save the Bush presidency.

But the reality is far more complex. The brutal truth is that the Petraeus report is unlikely to change a thing when it comes to policy on the ground: the surge and the war will go on. Its true importance lies in how it will be used politically: by the White House, by leading Democrats such as Senator Hillary Clinton, by Republican presidential hopefuls such as Rudy Giuliani.

And not least by Petraeus himself. For the highly media-savvy general has political ambitions of his own. This is his moment to shine.

A story often told about General David Howell Petraeus concerns a brush with death at Kentucky’s Fort Campbell in 1991. During a training exercise, a soldier tripped and accidentally fired his rifle. The bullet hit Petraeus in the chest. Yet he refused to leave the exercise, only relenting when a more senior general ordered him carried away on a stretcher. Even then – with the bullet missing his heart by inches – he managed to get himself discharged early from hospital after he did 50 push-ups in front of his doctor, just a few days after being shot.

The anecdote leaves little doubt that Petraeus is tough and driven. He was born in 1952 to Dutch American parents – his father, Sextus, was a seaman – and he grew up in the upstate New York town of Cornwall. It lies almost in the shadow of West Point, America’s military academy, where Petraeus duly gained admission. He excelled at high school and then graduated in the top 5 per cent of the West Point class of 1974. He also married the superintendent’s daughter. From there he carved out a successful career culminating in the rank of general.

A reputation as a ‘Washington general’ was wiped out by two tours of duty in Iraq. First he led his unit in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and then won plaudits for pacifying the northern city of Mosul in 2004. Then he took charge of the retraining and rebuilding of Iraq’s army, again winning praise for swiftly and decisively bringing on the scheme. He then co-authored the military’s new manual of counter-insurgency before, at the start of 2007, being appointed to command US forces in Iraq.

‘He’s a straight talker and he’s very highly thought of militarily,’ said Professor Donald Goldstein, a military expert at the University of Pittsburgh. Petraeus fits a lot of energy and focus into his 5ft 9in frame. He is famed for his five-mile runs, carried out even on Baghdad’s hottest days. One subordinate called him the ‘most competitive man on earth’. But his macho army bluster is also tempered by a keen intellect. His Princeton PhD is no accident. He is flexible too: he knows the war in Iraq is rarely just about bombs and bullets. In Mosul, one of his most famous catchphrases on the subject of bringing peace to the city was ‘money is ammunition’.

Yet he is not without critics. Some say he is overly fond of the media and has skilfully crafted an almost flawless public persona of the skilled tactician. Others say his focus is not just about the facts on the ground, but about his own advancement. ‘He is a sycophant incarnate. He’s a smart guy, but he’s playing politics in this,’ said Larry Johnson, a former CIA anti-terrorism official. They also point out that Petraeus’s record in Iraq can be criticized. The peace he brought to Mosul proved shortlived, and there is now a criminal investigation into missing supplies and weapons that involves officials close to Petraeus. His time in Iraq has seen the emergence of death squads and heightened sectarianism. ‘This has all happened on his watch,’ said Johnson.

But what will his report say? First, some media spin needs to be cut through. Petraeus has been used as an impressive, patriotic figure on which to hang such an important study. That suits both the White House and Petraeus himself. But his tough persona masks a more nuanced approach from the administration.

In fact, the Petraeus report will be a mix of analyzes from Petraeus and the US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker. Its exact wording will have heavy influence from White House officials. For those hoping that the report will contain a damning indictment of the war or prompt any meaningful troop reduction – or full withdrawal – there is almost certain to be deep disappointment. ‘It is frankly delusional for anyone to think it is going to change policy,’ said Charles Pena, a senior fellow at think-tank the Independent Institute. ‘They [Petraeus and Crocker] have no choice but to try to implement administration policy.’

And that policy is showing some signs of success. The military surge of troop numbers pushed by Bush has had an impact. The report will probably point to success stories in former hotbeds of Sunni insurgency such as Ramadi, Tal Afar and Mosul, where the security situation has been brought under some degree of control. In these areas, strategic alliances with Sunni tribes have seen former insurgents working with the US against Islamic jihadists. ‘There has been progress militarily. It is fair to say that,’ said Professor Rick Stoll, a defence and warfare expert at Rice University.

A taste of what Petraeus’s presentation might look like has already been given. On a recent trip by Democrat and Republican politicians to Iraq, he sat down, armed with charts and Powerpoint slides, to illustrate the advances made by the surge. An account of the meeting by Democrat Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky gives the lie to anyone expecting a military withdrawal from Iraq. She revealed to one newspaper that Petraeus told her America would be in Iraq in some way ‘for nine to 10 years’.

While the surge has changed the nature of the conflict, it has not yet brought it much closer to an end. As the brutal Sunni insurgency has tailed off, it has been replaced by Shia violence. The report is likely to note that the war has now become a fight between Shia militant groups and the US military. By last July, according to US officials, Shia fighters accounted for 73 per cent of attacks on coalition forces. That has been matched by a total failure of the Iraqi political process and a collapse of relations between the majority Shia – represented by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki – and the US. The surge’s aim was to ‘buy time’ for reconciliation between Iraq’s warring sectarian factions, but instead the feuding blocs have grown more violently apart. ‘No one wants to talk about reconciliation. No one wants to listen,’ said one official recently returned from Iraq. ‘The only reconciliation that is taking place is between the US military and some Sunni insurgents. That is not going to solve Iraq’s problems in the long run.’

So that will be the twin messages of Petraeus and Crocker. The military aspect of the surge is starting to turn the tide. But the political opportunity it was designed to create is being wasted by the Iraqis. If that sounds familiar, that is because it is the official White House stance on Iraq. ‘He is going to say that, from a military standpoint, it is going well, but, from a political standpoint, it is difficult and the Iraqis have to stand up for themselves. That is what Bush says,’ said Goldstein.

But if the contents of the report appear predictable, its impact is harder to ascertain. One thing is clear: it is unlikely to precipitate any rush significantly to withdraw US forces. It will allow the White House to claim that its strategy is working and that to halt the surge – as most Democrats wish to do – would be to snatch victory away from their troops.

Most experts believe that the White House will keep US troop levels at the current force of about 160,000 until at least April. Then to maintain the surge the army would need to extend its current rotation period from 15 months to 18 months. That is seen as too much of a burden by many military leaders.

Therefore it is widely predicted that the US presence in Iraq could be down to pre-surge levels of 130,000 troops by September next year. That could be presented as the beginning of a withdrawal, but it is hardly the sort of conflict-ending momentum that many Democrats – and much of the American public – seem to want. However, there is little political pressure on Bush to change policy in Iraq. He does not face re-election and the Democrats have shown that they are unwilling to do the one thing that could end the war: cut off funding. Again, the Petraeus report will not provide them with motivation to harden their stance. ‘The President has called the Democrats’ bluff. They don’t have the stomach for defunding, so there is no political pressure on the White House,’ said Pena.

But that is not true for any of the presidential candidates. They are all feeling the heat. For the Democrats, the Petraeus report is likely to contain enough bad news for them to continue their largely symbolic push for a troop withdrawal, but it will also have the risk that they will look as if they are undermining the first signs of success on the ground. For Republicans, it poses the opposite problem. The top-tier candidates, such as Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, have seen what happened to the campaign of John McCain, the most vocal supporter of Bush’s surge policy: his support has almost collapsed. Yet the Petraeus report is likely to force them to toe the White House line more tightly and in the face of much public hostility. Or it could cause them to go against the White House, following a pro-withdrawal line and opening up huge splits in the party itself. Those chasms are already becoming evident, with some top Republican figures, such as Senator John Warner, already calling for troop withdrawals to begin this year.

But above all the political squabbling will be Bush. No matter what happens, he will be President for all of 2008. And he shows no sign of any significant change of tack. Despite being billed as a watershed moment, the only real prospect of a reversal of Iraq policy will come in January 2009, when a new President walks into the Oval Office. The brutal fact is that there remains no meaningful end in sight for the US involvement in Iraq. Vietnam proved that the difference between when a war becomes unpopular and when it ends can be many years. In July 1967, the public approval rating of the Vietnam war dropped forever below 50 per cent, yet America did not leave Vietnam totally until 1975.

A similar process could be repeating itself in Iraq. Petraeus – as a keen student of history – would probably privately think that a tragedy. In his PhD thesis 20 years ago, he wrote: ‘Vietnam was a painful reminder for the military that they, not the transient occupants of high office, generally bear the heaviest burden during armed conflict.’

That is a trenchant analysis. But it was written by the Petraeus of Princeton. The Petraeus of next month is a general playing the highest political stakes of his career in front of the eyes of the world. He is unlikely to be so candid again.

Iraq benchmarks

Iraq has failed to meet all but three of 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks for political and military progress, according to a draft of a Government Accountability Office report to be presented to Congress on Tuesday.

Achieved: The protection of the rights of minority political parties in the Iraqi legislature. It is the only one of eight political benchmarks to have been met, the report says. However, the report does not concern itself with attacks on these parties outside of the legislature.

Failed: In other areas, the political process is judged to have been a failure, including the continued non-passage of legislation on constitutional reform, new oil laws and de-Baathification. Observers say the parliament rarely has sufficient members in attendance to have a quorum to consider legislation.

Mixed progress: On the security front, Iraq has met on two benchmarks. Despite the surge, violence remains roughly at the same levels. However, the number of Iraqi army units capable of operating independently has dropped from 10 in March to six last month.

Tags: , , ,

Monday, October 25th, 2010 Grants No Comments

America is Braced for the General’s Verdict

Two decades ago, General David Petraeus, the man charged with winning America’s second war in Iraq, wrote a thesis for his PhD in international relations at Princeton.

Its 328 pages were an intense study of the legacies of a war that had stretched the US military, riven world opinion and deeply divided American political life. It was entitled The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam. In one passage, the young officer took on the idea that public opinion in the US could not abide a military quagmire. ‘Vietnam was an extremely painful reminder that, when it comes to intervention, time and patience are not American virtues in abundant supply,’ Petraeus wrote in 1987. Now Petraeus is delivering another survey of an unpopular, divisive war. Only this time his audience is not a college tutor: it is the whole world.

In less than two weeks, Petraeus will appear before the US Congress and deliver a report into the progress of the ‘surge’, the military strategy launched by President George W Bush that was designed to win the Iraq war. It has been billed as a ‘make or break’ moment that could either trigger the beginnings of an American withdrawal or build on the first signs of real military success. And it will be scoured anxiously in London, where the political debate about the timing of a withdrawal of the remaining British forces is gathering pace.

In America, both sides of the political divide are breathless in anticipation. The Democrats await any hint of criticism. The Republicans have prepared a PR barrage of ‘good news’ to try to turn public opinion back behind the war effort. White House officials hail Petraeus as a ‘warrior scholar’ who finally gets what is needed to win in Iraq. They see him as a man who can save the Bush presidency.

But the reality is far more complex. The brutal truth is that the Petraeus report is unlikely to change a thing when it comes to policy on the ground: the surge and the war will go on. Its true importance lies in how it will be used politically: by the White House, by leading Democrats such as Senator Hillary Clinton, by Republican presidential hopefuls such as Rudy Giuliani.

And not least by Petraeus himself. For the highly media-savvy general has political ambitions of his own. This is his moment to shine.

A story often told about General David Howell Petraeus concerns a brush with death at Kentucky’s Fort Campbell in 1991. During a training exercise, a soldier tripped and accidentally fired his rifle. The bullet hit Petraeus in the chest. Yet he refused to leave the exercise, only relenting when a more senior general ordered him carried away on a stretcher. Even then – with the bullet missing his heart by inches – he managed to get himself discharged early from hospital after he did 50 push-ups in front of his doctor, just a few days after being shot.

The anecdote leaves little doubt that Petraeus is tough and driven. He was born in 1952 to Dutch American parents – his father, Sextus, was a seaman – and he grew up in the upstate New York town of Cornwall. It lies almost in the shadow of West Point, America’s military academy, where Petraeus duly gained admission. He excelled at high school and then graduated in the top 5 per cent of the West Point class of 1974. He also married the superintendent’s daughter. From there he carved out a successful career culminating in the rank of general.

A reputation as a ‘Washington general’ was wiped out by two tours of duty in Iraq. First he led his unit in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and then won plaudits for pacifying the northern city of Mosul in 2004. Then he took charge of the retraining and rebuilding of Iraq’s army, again winning praise for swiftly and decisively bringing on the scheme. He then co-authored the military’s new manual of counter-insurgency before, at the start of 2007, being appointed to command US forces in Iraq.

‘He’s a straight talker and he’s very highly thought of militarily,’ said Professor Donald Goldstein, a military expert at the University of Pittsburgh. Petraeus fits a lot of energy and focus into his 5ft 9in frame. He is famed for his five-mile runs, carried out even on Baghdad’s hottest days. One subordinate called him the ‘most competitive man on earth’. But his macho army bluster is also tempered by a keen intellect. His Princeton PhD is no accident. He is flexible too: he knows the war in Iraq is rarely just about bombs and bullets. In Mosul, one of his most famous catchphrases on the subject of bringing peace to the city was ‘money is ammunition’.

Yet he is not without critics. Some say he is overly fond of the media and has skilfully crafted an almost flawless public persona of the skilled tactician. Others say his focus is not just about the facts on the ground, but about his own advancement. ‘He is a sycophant incarnate. He’s a smart guy, but he’s playing politics in this,’ said Larry Johnson, a former CIA anti-terrorism official. They also point out that Petraeus’s record in Iraq can be criticized. The peace he brought to Mosul proved shortlived, and there is now a criminal investigation into missing supplies and weapons that involves officials close to Petraeus. His time in Iraq has seen the emergence of death squads and heightened sectarianism. ‘This has all happened on his watch,’ said Johnson.

But what will his report say? First, some media spin needs to be cut through. Petraeus has been used as an impressive, patriotic figure on which to hang such an important study. That suits both the White House and Petraeus himself. But his tough persona masks a more nuanced approach from the administration.

In fact, the Petraeus report will be a mix of analyzes from Petraeus and the US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker. Its exact wording will have heavy influence from White House officials. For those hoping that the report will contain a damning indictment of the war or prompt any meaningful troop reduction – or full withdrawal – there is almost certain to be deep disappointment. ‘It is frankly delusional for anyone to think it is going to change policy,’ said Charles Pena, a senior fellow at think-tank the Independent Institute. ‘They [Petraeus and Crocker] have no choice but to try to implement administration policy.’

And that policy is showing some signs of success. The military surge of troop numbers pushed by Bush has had an impact. The report will probably point to success stories in former hotbeds of Sunni insurgency such as Ramadi, Tal Afar and Mosul, where the security situation has been brought under some degree of control. In these areas, strategic alliances with Sunni tribes have seen former insurgents working with the US against Islamic jihadists. ‘There has been progress militarily. It is fair to say that,’ said Professor Rick Stoll, a defence and warfare expert at Rice University.

A taste of what Petraeus’s presentation might look like has already been given. On a recent trip by Democrat and Republican politicians to Iraq, he sat down, armed with charts and Powerpoint slides, to illustrate the advances made by the surge. An account of the meeting by Democrat Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky gives the lie to anyone expecting a military withdrawal from Iraq. She revealed to one newspaper that Petraeus told her America would be in Iraq in some way ‘for nine to 10 years’.

While the surge has changed the nature of the conflict, it has not yet brought it much closer to an end. As the brutal Sunni insurgency has tailed off, it has been replaced by Shia violence. The report is likely to note that the war has now become a fight between Shia militant groups and the US military. By last July, according to US officials, Shia fighters accounted for 73 per cent of attacks on coalition forces. That has been matched by a total failure of the Iraqi political process and a collapse of relations between the majority Shia – represented by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki – and the US. The surge’s aim was to ‘buy time’ for reconciliation between Iraq’s warring sectarian factions, but instead the feuding blocs have grown more violently apart. ‘No one wants to talk about reconciliation. No one wants to listen,’ said one official recently returned from Iraq. ‘The only reconciliation that is taking place is between the US military and some Sunni insurgents. That is not going to solve Iraq’s problems in the long run.’

So that will be the twin messages of Petraeus and Crocker. The military aspect of the surge is starting to turn the tide. But the political opportunity it was designed to create is being wasted by the Iraqis. If that sounds familiar, that is because it is the official White House stance on Iraq. ‘He is going to say that, from a military standpoint, it is going well, but, from a political standpoint, it is difficult and the Iraqis have to stand up for themselves. That is what Bush says,’ said Goldstein.

But if the contents of the report appear predictable, its impact is harder to ascertain. One thing is clear: it is unlikely to precipitate any rush significantly to withdraw US forces. It will allow the White House to claim that its strategy is working and that to halt the surge – as most Democrats wish to do – would be to snatch victory away from their troops.

Most experts believe that the White House will keep US troop levels at the current force of about 160,000 until at least April. Then to maintain the surge the army would need to extend its current rotation period from 15 months to 18 months. That is seen as too much of a burden by many military leaders.

Therefore it is widely predicted that the US presence in Iraq could be down to pre-surge levels of 130,000 troops by September next year. That could be presented as the beginning of a withdrawal, but it is hardly the sort of conflict-ending momentum that many Democrats – and much of the American public – seem to want. However, there is little political pressure on Bush to change policy in Iraq. He does not face re-election and the Democrats have shown that they are unwilling to do the one thing that could end the war: cut off funding. Again, the Petraeus report will not provide them with motivation to harden their stance. ‘The President has called the Democrats’ bluff. They don’t have the stomach for defunding, so there is no political pressure on the White House,’ said Pena.

But that is not true for any of the presidential candidates. They are all feeling the heat. For the Democrats, the Petraeus report is likely to contain enough bad news for them to continue their largely symbolic push for a troop withdrawal, but it will also have the risk that they will look as if they are undermining the first signs of success on the ground. For Republicans, it poses the opposite problem. The top-tier candidates, such as Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, have seen what happened to the campaign of John McCain, the most vocal supporter of Bush’s surge policy: his support has almost collapsed. Yet the Petraeus report is likely to force them to toe the White House line more tightly and in the face of much public hostility. Or it could cause them to go against the White House, following a pro-withdrawal line and opening up huge splits in the party itself. Those chasms are already becoming evident, with some top Republican figures, such as Senator John Warner, already calling for troop withdrawals to begin this year.

But above all the political squabbling will be Bush. No matter what happens, he will be President for all of 2008. And he shows no sign of any significant change of tack. Despite being billed as a watershed moment, the only real prospect of a reversal of Iraq policy will come in January 2009, when a new President walks into the Oval Office. The brutal fact is that there remains no meaningful end in sight for the US involvement in Iraq. Vietnam proved that the difference between when a war becomes unpopular and when it ends can be many years. In July 1967, the public approval rating of the Vietnam war dropped forever below 50 per cent, yet America did not leave Vietnam totally until 1975.

A similar process could be repeating itself in Iraq. Petraeus – as a keen student of history – would probably privately think that a tragedy. In his PhD thesis 20 years ago, he wrote: ‘Vietnam was a painful reminder for the military that they, not the transient occupants of high office, generally bear the heaviest burden during armed conflict.’

That is a trenchant analysis. But it was written by the Petraeus of Princeton. The Petraeus of next month is a general playing the highest political stakes of his career in front of the eyes of the world. He is unlikely to be so candid again.

Iraq benchmarks

Iraq has failed to meet all but three of 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks for political and military progress, according to a draft of a Government Accountability Office report to be presented to Congress on Tuesday.

Achieved: The protection of the rights of minority political parties in the Iraqi legislature. It is the only one of eight political benchmarks to have been met, the report says. However, the report does not concern itself with attacks on these parties outside of the legislature.

Failed: In other areas, the political process is judged to have been a failure, including the continued non-passage of legislation on constitutional reform, new oil laws and de-Baathification. Observers say the parliament rarely has sufficient members in attendance to have a quorum to consider legislation.

Mixed progress: On the security front, Iraq has met on two benchmarks. Despite the surge, violence remains roughly at the same levels. However, the number of Iraqi army units capable of operating independently has dropped from 10 in March to six last month.

Tags: , , ,

Monday, October 25th, 2010 Grants No Comments

America is Braced for the General’s Verdict

Two decades ago, General David Petraeus, the man charged with winning America’s second war in Iraq, wrote a thesis for his PhD in international relations at Princeton.

Its 328 pages were an intense study of the legacies of a war that had stretched the US military, riven world opinion and deeply divided American political life. It was entitled The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam. In one passage, the young officer took on the idea that public opinion in the US could not abide a military quagmire. ‘Vietnam was an extremely painful reminder that, when it comes to intervention, time and patience are not American virtues in abundant supply,’ Petraeus wrote in 1987. Now Petraeus is delivering another survey of an unpopular, divisive war. Only this time his audience is not a college tutor: it is the whole world.

In less than two weeks, Petraeus will appear before the US Congress and deliver a report into the progress of the ‘surge’, the military strategy launched by President George W Bush that was designed to win the Iraq war. It has been billed as a ‘make or break’ moment that could either trigger the beginnings of an American withdrawal or build on the first signs of real military success. And it will be scoured anxiously in London, where the political debate about the timing of a withdrawal of the remaining British forces is gathering pace.

In America, both sides of the political divide are breathless in anticipation. The Democrats await any hint of criticism. The Republicans have prepared a PR barrage of ‘good news’ to try to turn public opinion back behind the war effort. White House officials hail Petraeus as a ‘warrior scholar’ who finally gets what is needed to win in Iraq. They see him as a man who can save the Bush presidency.

But the reality is far more complex. The brutal truth is that the Petraeus report is unlikely to change a thing when it comes to policy on the ground: the surge and the war will go on. Its true importance lies in how it will be used politically: by the White House, by leading Democrats such as Senator Hillary Clinton, by Republican presidential hopefuls such as Rudy Giuliani.

And not least by Petraeus himself. For the highly media-savvy general has political ambitions of his own. This is his moment to shine.

A story often told about General David Howell Petraeus concerns a brush with death at Kentucky’s Fort Campbell in 1991. During a training exercise, a soldier tripped and accidentally fired his rifle. The bullet hit Petraeus in the chest. Yet he refused to leave the exercise, only relenting when a more senior general ordered him carried away on a stretcher. Even then – with the bullet missing his heart by inches – he managed to get himself discharged early from hospital after he did 50 push-ups in front of his doctor, just a few days after being shot.

The anecdote leaves little doubt that Petraeus is tough and driven. He was born in 1952 to Dutch American parents – his father, Sextus, was a seaman – and he grew up in the upstate New York town of Cornwall. It lies almost in the shadow of West Point, America’s military academy, where Petraeus duly gained admission. He excelled at high school and then graduated in the top 5 per cent of the West Point class of 1974. He also married the superintendent’s daughter. From there he carved out a successful career culminating in the rank of general.

A reputation as a ‘Washington general’ was wiped out by two tours of duty in Iraq. First he led his unit in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and then won plaudits for pacifying the northern city of Mosul in 2004. Then he took charge of the retraining and rebuilding of Iraq’s army, again winning praise for swiftly and decisively bringing on the scheme. He then co-authored the military’s new manual of counter-insurgency before, at the start of 2007, being appointed to command US forces in Iraq.

‘He’s a straight talker and he’s very highly thought of militarily,’ said Professor Donald Goldstein, a military expert at the University of Pittsburgh. Petraeus fits a lot of energy and focus into his 5ft 9in frame. He is famed for his five-mile runs, carried out even on Baghdad’s hottest days. One subordinate called him the ‘most competitive man on earth’. But his macho army bluster is also tempered by a keen intellect. His Princeton PhD is no accident. He is flexible too: he knows the war in Iraq is rarely just about bombs and bullets. In Mosul, one of his most famous catchphrases on the subject of bringing peace to the city was ‘money is ammunition’.

Yet he is not without critics. Some say he is overly fond of the media and has skilfully crafted an almost flawless public persona of the skilled tactician. Others say his focus is not just about the facts on the ground, but about his own advancement. ‘He is a sycophant incarnate. He’s a smart guy, but he’s playing politics in this,’ said Larry Johnson, a former CIA anti-terrorism official. They also point out that Petraeus’s record in Iraq can be criticized. The peace he brought to Mosul proved shortlived, and there is now a criminal investigation into missing supplies and weapons that involves officials close to Petraeus. His time in Iraq has seen the emergence of death squads and heightened sectarianism. ‘This has all happened on his watch,’ said Johnson.

But what will his report say? First, some media spin needs to be cut through. Petraeus has been used as an impressive, patriotic figure on which to hang such an important study. That suits both the White House and Petraeus himself. But his tough persona masks a more nuanced approach from the administration.

In fact, the Petraeus report will be a mix of analyzes from Petraeus and the US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker. Its exact wording will have heavy influence from White House officials. For those hoping that the report will contain a damning indictment of the war or prompt any meaningful troop reduction – or full withdrawal – there is almost certain to be deep disappointment. ‘It is frankly delusional for anyone to think it is going to change policy,’ said Charles Pena, a senior fellow at think-tank the Independent Institute. ‘They [Petraeus and Crocker] have no choice but to try to implement administration policy.’

And that policy is showing some signs of success. The military surge of troop numbers pushed by Bush has had an impact. The report will probably point to success stories in former hotbeds of Sunni insurgency such as Ramadi, Tal Afar and Mosul, where the security situation has been brought under some degree of control. In these areas, strategic alliances with Sunni tribes have seen former insurgents working with the US against Islamic jihadists. ‘There has been progress militarily. It is fair to say that,’ said Professor Rick Stoll, a defence and warfare expert at Rice University.

A taste of what Petraeus’s presentation might look like has already been given. On a recent trip by Democrat and Republican politicians to Iraq, he sat down, armed with charts and Powerpoint slides, to illustrate the advances made by the surge. An account of the meeting by Democrat Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky gives the lie to anyone expecting a military withdrawal from Iraq. She revealed to one newspaper that Petraeus told her America would be in Iraq in some way ‘for nine to 10 years’.

While the surge has changed the nature of the conflict, it has not yet brought it much closer to an end. As the brutal Sunni insurgency has tailed off, it has been replaced by Shia violence. The report is likely to note that the war has now become a fight between Shia militant groups and the US military. By last July, according to US officials, Shia fighters accounted for 73 per cent of attacks on coalition forces. That has been matched by a total failure of the Iraqi political process and a collapse of relations between the majority Shia – represented by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki – and the US. The surge’s aim was to ‘buy time’ for reconciliation between Iraq’s warring sectarian factions, but instead the feuding blocs have grown more violently apart. ‘No one wants to talk about reconciliation. No one wants to listen,’ said one official recently returned from Iraq. ‘The only reconciliation that is taking place is between the US military and some Sunni insurgents. That is not going to solve Iraq’s problems in the long run.’

So that will be the twin messages of Petraeus and Crocker. The military aspect of the surge is starting to turn the tide. But the political opportunity it was designed to create is being wasted by the Iraqis. If that sounds familiar, that is because it is the official White House stance on Iraq. ‘He is going to say that, from a military standpoint, it is going well, but, from a political standpoint, it is difficult and the Iraqis have to stand up for themselves. That is what Bush says,’ said Goldstein.

But if the contents of the report appear predictable, its impact is harder to ascertain. One thing is clear: it is unlikely to precipitate any rush significantly to withdraw US forces. It will allow the White House to claim that its strategy is working and that to halt the surge – as most Democrats wish to do – would be to snatch victory away from their troops.

Most experts believe that the White House will keep US troop levels at the current force of about 160,000 until at least April. Then to maintain the surge the army would need to extend its current rotation period from 15 months to 18 months. That is seen as too much of a burden by many military leaders.

Therefore it is widely predicted that the US presence in Iraq could be down to pre-surge levels of 130,000 troops by September next year. That could be presented as the beginning of a withdrawal, but it is hardly the sort of conflict-ending momentum that many Democrats – and much of the American public – seem to want. However, there is little political pressure on Bush to change policy in Iraq. He does not face re-election and the Democrats have shown that they are unwilling to do the one thing that could end the war: cut off funding. Again, the Petraeus report will not provide them with motivation to harden their stance. ‘The President has called the Democrats’ bluff. They don’t have the stomach for defunding, so there is no political pressure on the White House,’ said Pena.

But that is not true for any of the presidential candidates. They are all feeling the heat. For the Democrats, the Petraeus report is likely to contain enough bad news for them to continue their largely symbolic push for a troop withdrawal, but it will also have the risk that they will look as if they are undermining the first signs of success on the ground. For Republicans, it poses the opposite problem. The top-tier candidates, such as Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, have seen what happened to the campaign of John McCain, the most vocal supporter of Bush’s surge policy: his support has almost collapsed. Yet the Petraeus report is likely to force them to toe the White House line more tightly and in the face of much public hostility. Or it could cause them to go against the White House, following a pro-withdrawal line and opening up huge splits in the party itself. Those chasms are already becoming evident, with some top Republican figures, such as Senator John Warner, already calling for troop withdrawals to begin this year.

But above all the political squabbling will be Bush. No matter what happens, he will be President for all of 2008. And he shows no sign of any significant change of tack. Despite being billed as a watershed moment, the only real prospect of a reversal of Iraq policy will come in January 2009, when a new President walks into the Oval Office. The brutal fact is that there remains no meaningful end in sight for the US involvement in Iraq. Vietnam proved that the difference between when a war becomes unpopular and when it ends can be many years. In July 1967, the public approval rating of the Vietnam war dropped forever below 50 per cent, yet America did not leave Vietnam totally until 1975.

A similar process could be repeating itself in Iraq. Petraeus – as a keen student of history – would probably privately think that a tragedy. In his PhD thesis 20 years ago, he wrote: ‘Vietnam was a painful reminder for the military that they, not the transient occupants of high office, generally bear the heaviest burden during armed conflict.’

That is a trenchant analysis. But it was written by the Petraeus of Princeton. The Petraeus of next month is a general playing the highest political stakes of his career in front of the eyes of the world. He is unlikely to be so candid again.

Iraq benchmarks

Iraq has failed to meet all but three of 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks for political and military progress, according to a draft of a Government Accountability Office report to be presented to Congress on Tuesday.

Achieved: The protection of the rights of minority political parties in the Iraqi legislature. It is the only one of eight political benchmarks to have been met, the report says. However, the report does not concern itself with attacks on these parties outside of the legislature.

Failed: In other areas, the political process is judged to have been a failure, including the continued non-passage of legislation on constitutional reform, new oil laws and de-Baathification. Observers say the parliament rarely has sufficient members in attendance to have a quorum to consider legislation.

Mixed progress: On the security front, Iraq has met on two benchmarks. Despite the surge, violence remains roughly at the same levels. However, the number of Iraqi army units capable of operating independently has dropped from 10 in March to six last month.

Tags: , , ,

Monday, October 25th, 2010 Grants No Comments

America is Braced for the General’s Verdict

Two decades ago, General David Petraeus, the man charged with winning America’s second war in Iraq, wrote a thesis for his PhD in international relations at Princeton.

Its 328 pages were an intense study of the legacies of a war that had stretched the US military, riven world opinion and deeply divided American political life. It was entitled The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam. In one passage, the young officer took on the idea that public opinion in the US could not abide a military quagmire. ‘Vietnam was an extremely painful reminder that, when it comes to intervention, time and patience are not American virtues in abundant supply,’ Petraeus wrote in 1987. Now Petraeus is delivering another survey of an unpopular, divisive war. Only this time his audience is not a college tutor: it is the whole world.

In less than two weeks, Petraeus will appear before the US Congress and deliver a report into the progress of the ‘surge’, the military strategy launched by President George W Bush that was designed to win the Iraq war. It has been billed as a ‘make or break’ moment that could either trigger the beginnings of an American withdrawal or build on the first signs of real military success. And it will be scoured anxiously in London, where the political debate about the timing of a withdrawal of the remaining British forces is gathering pace.

In America, both sides of the political divide are breathless in anticipation. The Democrats await any hint of criticism. The Republicans have prepared a PR barrage of ‘good news’ to try to turn public opinion back behind the war effort. White House officials hail Petraeus as a ‘warrior scholar’ who finally gets what is needed to win in Iraq. They see him as a man who can save the Bush presidency.

But the reality is far more complex. The brutal truth is that the Petraeus report is unlikely to change a thing when it comes to policy on the ground: the surge and the war will go on. Its true importance lies in how it will be used politically: by the White House, by leading Democrats such as Senator Hillary Clinton, by Republican presidential hopefuls such as Rudy Giuliani.

And not least by Petraeus himself. For the highly media-savvy general has political ambitions of his own. This is his moment to shine.

A story often told about General David Howell Petraeus concerns a brush with death at Kentucky’s Fort Campbell in 1991. During a training exercise, a soldier tripped and accidentally fired his rifle. The bullet hit Petraeus in the chest. Yet he refused to leave the exercise, only relenting when a more senior general ordered him carried away on a stretcher. Even then – with the bullet missing his heart by inches – he managed to get himself discharged early from hospital after he did 50 push-ups in front of his doctor, just a few days after being shot.

The anecdote leaves little doubt that Petraeus is tough and driven. He was born in 1952 to Dutch American parents – his father, Sextus, was a seaman – and he grew up in the upstate New York town of Cornwall. It lies almost in the shadow of West Point, America’s military academy, where Petraeus duly gained admission. He excelled at high school and then graduated in the top 5 per cent of the West Point class of 1974. He also married the superintendent’s daughter. From there he carved out a successful career culminating in the rank of general.

A reputation as a ‘Washington general’ was wiped out by two tours of duty in Iraq. First he led his unit in the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and then won plaudits for pacifying the northern city of Mosul in 2004. Then he took charge of the retraining and rebuilding of Iraq’s army, again winning praise for swiftly and decisively bringing on the scheme. He then co-authored the military’s new manual of counter-insurgency before, at the start of 2007, being appointed to command US forces in Iraq.

‘He’s a straight talker and he’s very highly thought of militarily,’ said Professor Donald Goldstein, a military expert at the University of Pittsburgh. Petraeus fits a lot of energy and focus into his 5ft 9in frame. He is famed for his five-mile runs, carried out even on Baghdad’s hottest days. One subordinate called him the ‘most competitive man on earth’. But his macho army bluster is also tempered by a keen intellect. His Princeton PhD is no accident. He is flexible too: he knows the war in Iraq is rarely just about bombs and bullets. In Mosul, one of his most famous catchphrases on the subject of bringing peace to the city was ‘money is ammunition’.

Yet he is not without critics. Some say he is overly fond of the media and has skilfully crafted an almost flawless public persona of the skilled tactician. Others say his focus is not just about the facts on the ground, but about his own advancement. ‘He is a sycophant incarnate. He’s a smart guy, but he’s playing politics in this,’ said Larry Johnson, a former CIA anti-terrorism official. They also point out that Petraeus’s record in Iraq can be criticized. The peace he brought to Mosul proved shortlived, and there is now a criminal investigation into missing supplies and weapons that involves officials close to Petraeus. His time in Iraq has seen the emergence of death squads and heightened sectarianism. ‘This has all happened on his watch,’ said Johnson.

But what will his report say? First, some media spin needs to be cut through. Petraeus has been used as an impressive, patriotic figure on which to hang such an important study. That suits both the White House and Petraeus himself. But his tough persona masks a more nuanced approach from the administration.

In fact, the Petraeus report will be a mix of analyzes from Petraeus and the US ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker. Its exact wording will have heavy influence from White House officials. For those hoping that the report will contain a damning indictment of the war or prompt any meaningful troop reduction – or full withdrawal – there is almost certain to be deep disappointment. ‘It is frankly delusional for anyone to think it is going to change policy,’ said Charles Pena, a senior fellow at think-tank the Independent Institute. ‘They [Petraeus and Crocker] have no choice but to try to implement administration policy.’

And that policy is showing some signs of success. The military surge of troop numbers pushed by Bush has had an impact. The report will probably point to success stories in former hotbeds of Sunni insurgency such as Ramadi, Tal Afar and Mosul, where the security situation has been brought under some degree of control. In these areas, strategic alliances with Sunni tribes have seen former insurgents working with the US against Islamic jihadists. ‘There has been progress militarily. It is fair to say that,’ said Professor Rick Stoll, a defence and warfare expert at Rice University.

A taste of what Petraeus’s presentation might look like has already been given. On a recent trip by Democrat and Republican politicians to Iraq, he sat down, armed with charts and Powerpoint slides, to illustrate the advances made by the surge. An account of the meeting by Democrat Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky gives the lie to anyone expecting a military withdrawal from Iraq. She revealed to one newspaper that Petraeus told her America would be in Iraq in some way ‘for nine to 10 years’.

While the surge has changed the nature of the conflict, it has not yet brought it much closer to an end. As the brutal Sunni insurgency has tailed off, it has been replaced by Shia violence. The report is likely to note that the war has now become a fight between Shia militant groups and the US military. By last July, according to US officials, Shia fighters accounted for 73 per cent of attacks on coalition forces. That has been matched by a total failure of the Iraqi political process and a collapse of relations between the majority Shia – represented by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki – and the US. The surge’s aim was to ‘buy time’ for reconciliation between Iraq’s warring sectarian factions, but instead the feuding blocs have grown more violently apart. ‘No one wants to talk about reconciliation. No one wants to listen,’ said one official recently returned from Iraq. ‘The only reconciliation that is taking place is between the US military and some Sunni insurgents. That is not going to solve Iraq’s problems in the long run.’

So that will be the twin messages of Petraeus and Crocker. The military aspect of the surge is starting to turn the tide. But the political opportunity it was designed to create is being wasted by the Iraqis. If that sounds familiar, that is because it is the official White House stance on Iraq. ‘He is going to say that, from a military standpoint, it is going well, but, from a political standpoint, it is difficult and the Iraqis have to stand up for themselves. That is what Bush says,’ said Goldstein.

But if the contents of the report appear predictable, its impact is harder to ascertain. One thing is clear: it is unlikely to precipitate any rush significantly to withdraw US forces. It will allow the White House to claim that its strategy is working and that to halt the surge – as most Democrats wish to do – would be to snatch victory away from their troops.

Most experts believe that the White House will keep US troop levels at the current force of about 160,000 until at least April. Then to maintain the surge the army would need to extend its current rotation period from 15 months to 18 months. That is seen as too much of a burden by many military leaders.

Therefore it is widely predicted that the US presence in Iraq could be down to pre-surge levels of 130,000 troops by September next year. That could be presented as the beginning of a withdrawal, but it is hardly the sort of conflict-ending momentum that many Democrats – and much of the American public – seem to want. However, there is little political pressure on Bush to change policy in Iraq. He does not face re-election and the Democrats have shown that they are unwilling to do the one thing that could end the war: cut off funding. Again, the Petraeus report will not provide them with motivation to harden their stance. ‘The President has called the Democrats’ bluff. They don’t have the stomach for defunding, so there is no political pressure on the White House,’ said Pena.

But that is not true for any of the presidential candidates. They are all feeling the heat. For the Democrats, the Petraeus report is likely to contain enough bad news for them to continue their largely symbolic push for a troop withdrawal, but it will also have the risk that they will look as if they are undermining the first signs of success on the ground. For Republicans, it poses the opposite problem. The top-tier candidates, such as Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, have seen what happened to the campaign of John McCain, the most vocal supporter of Bush’s surge policy: his support has almost collapsed. Yet the Petraeus report is likely to force them to toe the White House line more tightly and in the face of much public hostility. Or it could cause them to go against the White House, following a pro-withdrawal line and opening up huge splits in the party itself. Those chasms are already becoming evident, with some top Republican figures, such as Senator John Warner, already calling for troop withdrawals to begin this year.

But above all the political squabbling will be Bush. No matter what happens, he will be President for all of 2008. And he shows no sign of any significant change of tack. Despite being billed as a watershed moment, the only real prospect of a reversal of Iraq policy will come in January 2009, when a new President walks into the Oval Office. The brutal fact is that there remains no meaningful end in sight for the US involvement in Iraq. Vietnam proved that the difference between when a war becomes unpopular and when it ends can be many years. In July 1967, the public approval rating of the Vietnam war dropped forever below 50 per cent, yet America did not leave Vietnam totally until 1975.

A similar process could be repeating itself in Iraq. Petraeus – as a keen student of history – would probably privately think that a tragedy. In his PhD thesis 20 years ago, he wrote: ‘Vietnam was a painful reminder for the military that they, not the transient occupants of high office, generally bear the heaviest burden during armed conflict.’

That is a trenchant analysis. But it was written by the Petraeus of Princeton. The Petraeus of next month is a general playing the highest political stakes of his career in front of the eyes of the world. He is unlikely to be so candid again.

Iraq benchmarks

Iraq has failed to meet all but three of 18 congressionally mandated benchmarks for political and military progress, according to a draft of a Government Accountability Office report to be presented to Congress on Tuesday.

Achieved: The protection of the rights of minority political parties in the Iraqi legislature. It is the only one of eight political benchmarks to have been met, the report says. However, the report does not concern itself with attacks on these parties outside of the legislature.

Failed: In other areas, the political process is judged to have been a failure, including the continued non-passage of legislation on constitutional reform, new oil laws and de-Baathification. Observers say the parliament rarely has sufficient members in attendance to have a quorum to consider legislation.

Mixed progress: On the security front, Iraq has met on two benchmarks. Despite the surge, violence remains roughly at the same levels. However, the number of Iraqi army units capable of operating independently has dropped from 10 in March to six last month.

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